The passage of the front itself should be primarily a wind event since it’s a fast moving system with an overland trajectory from the north that will keep it moisture starved.

More importantly, forecasters are tracking a deep low pressure system that is expected to slowly work its way down the Pacific Coast from Sunday through Tuesday, pumping moisture into the Tahoe Region. Mountain temperatures will be so cold that water-to-snow ratios should be very high, meaning that each inch of rain will convert to 20 to 30 inches of snow. That’s powder, folks! Just two inches of water (precipitation) from this system
could easily translate into five feet of snow by Wednesday in some local locations.

Cold temperatures early next week will drive down snow levels to sea level in Northern California and to possibly around 500 feet near Sacramento. Locations in western Nevada, like Reno and Carson City, should also see
snowfall. The productivity of this winter storm will be predicated on its exact track down the Pacific coast. We'll see.

Historical Perspective
Tahoe winters have been slow out of the gate the past few years, but these late starts don’t necessarily mean that the winter will be dry or that the skiing won’t be good. You just have to have a little patience.

Fifty years ago, the slow starting winter of 1959 had everyone worried, too. High pressure dominated through December 1958 and it wasn’t until early 1959 that the first major storm of the season pounded the Sierra with heavy snow.

It wasn’t just locals who were concerned about the lack of snow that year. The national media was focused on the North American Championships that were scheduled at Palisades Tahoe in February "59. The competition was actually international in scope and the event was a practice run for the Winter Olympic Games to be held at Squaw the following year.

By mid-February 1959, hordes of American and international athletes were invading this little-known ski area. The best skiers and skaters in the world were anxious to tackle the steep, challenging ski runs, the towering 80-meter jump, and new outdoor ice rinks that construction crews had built at Palisades Tahoe. The Olympic skating rink was the world’s first artificially frozen speed skating oval.

Vying for berths on the U.S. Olympic team, American alpine athletes like Dick Dorworth and Buddy Werner were ready to prove their speed and talent against the stiff foreign competition.

Because of the lack of snow earlier that winter (1958-59) there were serious concerns about sufficient snow depth on the race course runs. Luckily a major storm roared out of the Pacific on February 11 and for two days heavy snow blanketed the Sierra. Palisades Tahoe picked up 65 inches at the base lodge!

On February 13, warmer temperatures raised snow levels above 7,000 feet and soaked the snowpack with more than two inches of rain, but a few days later freezing levels dropped again and the snow really began piling up on KT22, site of the popular men’s and women’s downhill ski events. Extreme avalanche danger canceled all practice runs on KT22’s upper slopes and forced frustrated racers back into the lodge.

February’s stormy pattern finally broke one day before the North American Championship’s opening festivities. Palisades Tahoe had picked up 104 inches of snow in 10 days, but that didn’t stop thousands of spectators from flooding the former cow pasture. Competitors short of practice and patience quickly rebounded to thrill the crowds, and Palisades Tahoe was on its way to world-class status.

Photos and story by weather-historian, Mark McLaughlin, who lives on the North Shore of Lake Tahoe.