This is the time of year where most Tahoe folks start to wonder and pontificate about how the coming winter will turn out. Big snow? No Snow? We've had both in the past two years. One standard to turn to for an opinion is Punxatahoe Pete, who today, on what is now becoming known as 'Marmot Day' has provided his own take on what is yet to come.

Much of the psuedo-scientific predictions and chatter revolves around bees, pinecones, chipmunks, and other local observation factors. This year the squirrel and chipmunk activity is notably high. Everywhere you look, they're knocking down and devouring pinecones, and gathering pine nuts.

A few years back, another local legend, Punxatahoe Pete, was discovered (read story). A prognosticator as notable as his relative, Punxatawny Phil, of 'Groundhog Day' fame, who specializes in spring forecasts, Pete adds another opinion and observation to Tahoe's winter outlook.

This year, on September 22nd (the autumnal equinox) as sun rose on another beautiful fall day at Palisades Tahoe's High Camp, eyewitness reports indicate that Punxatahoe Pete poked his head out of his hole, looked around, shrugged his shoulders, and then gave a long sigh. It would seem, just as the National Weather Service says, that there is really nothing to report. He just doesn't know. It's a 50/50 chance no matter how you look at it.

The Seasonal Forecast link on the National Weather Service website provides some confirmation and insights to this situation. While the August 3-month precipation map (for the coming December, January and February) showed above normal precipitation, the recently issued September map shows a significant change in the outlook (see maps below).

Indications now are that we have a 50/50, or "equal chance" for any of the possible scenarios for both temperature and precipitation - above, below, or just normal. The forecasters, to the best of their knowledge, are now predicting a drier winter in the midwest and northwest, and above-normal precipitation for the south and southeast. Everywhere else is "equal chance" for it to go either direction or be normal.

The long lead text discussion formats offer more detailed info including all the technical jargon about weather forecasting you would every want, conveniently laid out in a "Summary... For Non-Technical Users". All of this is under the all caps heading 'PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS', excerpted below with key points bolded in red.

 

ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED INTO SEPTEMBER.  WE REMAIN CURRENTLY
UNDER AN EL NINO WATCH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NOW ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE ENTIRE PACIFIC OCEAN, BUT IN CONTRAST TO A FEW WEEKS
AGO DO NOT REACH 1 DEGREE C ANYWHERE. SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION ARE
HOVERING NEAR THE POSITIVE 0.5 C THRESHOLD. DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT SST
ANOMALIES TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN THIS REGION USED FOR MONITORING THE ENSO
STATE, SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING
FALL OF 2012. DYNAMICAL FORECASTS, HOWEVER, ARE WEAKER NOW THAN 1 AND
ESPECIALLY 2 MONTHS AGO. STATISTICAL MODELS GENERALLY HAVE PREDICTED SMALLER
SST ANOMALIES. WHILE IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW LARGE SST ANOMALIES WILL
BE OR HOW MUCH THEY WILL ALTER THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION IMPACTING NORTH
AMERICA IT NOW SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT A STRONG EL NINO WILL DEVELOP.

THE OND 2012 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST, AND
IN NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL MODELS AND BY LOCAL SST
ALONG THE SHORE OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

THE OND 2012 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS, NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA, NORTHERN IDAHO, AND THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
PREDICTED FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC.

IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE LIKELIHOODS OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EQUAL
CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
ARE INDICATED.

So, what's a Tahoe-centric person to do? To the uninitiated and shorter-term folks, worry, second guessing and trepidation can ensue. To those with a few more years under their belt might advise that one continue to enjoy the spectacular fall weather and, perhaps, follow the lead of the squirrels, chipmunks and old-timer marmots - store a few nuts, stack some wood, and be prepared for whatever is yet to come when it arrives.

 Author's Note: The Palisades Tahoe Cable Car (now officially the 'Aerial Tram') is closed after Sept. 23rd and scheduled to reopen on November 21st. Depending on the amount of snowfall at that time, it may be possible to catch a glimpse of Punxatahoe Pete before he packs it in for the winter.