Last year ('07-'08) we had to wait until December 6th for the first decent storm, which dumped about two feet over 48 hours. The year before that was also late out of the gate and only extensive snowmaking made decent skiing possible before Christmas. Both of those winters ended up drier than average.

The heavy rain at Tahoe in early November bumped up Lake Tahoe’s water level a smidge, but the lake has been on a slide ever since and is now just about at its natural rim--6,223'. It’s likely that within a week or so, no more water will spill into the Truckee River from Lake Tahoe until winter storms pump up the watershed. The lack of precipitation is directly due to the dome of Pacific High Pressure hanging over California and Oregon.



To recharge low reservoir levels some local water officials are hoping for record winter precipitation this winter, which is the equivalent of the Hail Mary pass in football. You can call the play, but a successful outcome is
against the law of averages and it usually doesn’t work.

Federal Water Master Garry Stone, whose office manages flows in the Truckee River, recently said that the Tahoe region “needs a winter with three or four times the average snowpack to bring the lake above the natural rim and to an acceptable level.” That’s a tall order.

Anyway, giant winters often bring destructive floods or wreak havoc with transportation and the ability for tourists to access the ski resorts.

It’s been bone dry ever since the dousing five weeks ago. Some computer models are starting to hint at a pattern change after mid-December that may bring storms into California, but it’s too early to start celebrating. Long-range winter forecasts are particularly fickle and usually hard to predict with confidence, especially if the various components of the extended forecast are in poor agreement as they are right now.

Kelly Redmond, deputy director and climatologist at the Western Regional Climate Center in Reno said, “It’s a make or break winter. We’ve been able to live off the buffer provided by the reservoir system. But some of the
reservoirs are getting pretty low.”

Lake and reservoir levels aren’t the only things getting low. So are the patience and bank accounts of Tahoe ski resort managers and the hundreds of new, seasonal employees who flock to the region every winter. Until the ski runs open up and the bullwheels start turning, most workers will have to rely on whatever cash they brought with them. It’s definitely time to organize some low-cost, Pray for Snow parties.